Global Shield Newsletter (22 November 2023)
Supervolcanoes and superpowers - plus a staffing update
This twice-monthly newsletter highlights the latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR).
Relations between superpowers are like a volcano. For years, the lava bubbles under the surface, until the pressure is too much, and the top blows with fire and fury. So, it feels appropriate to cover, in this edition, two recent sources of heat and friction that we hope keeps its cool: global volcanic activity and US-China relations.
Recognizing and treating volcanic risk
The last month has seen coverage of volcanic activity around the world. A volcano near the town of Grindavik in Iceland is highly likely to erupt, though the broader impact will depend on the precise location of the eruption. On 21 November, Mount Ulawun, the tallest volcano of Papua New Guinea erupted, with ash reaching 18km high. Sicily’s Mount Etna volcano began spewing lava and ash on 12 November, after thousands of tremors over months. And a few weeks ago, Japan gained a new island, when an undersea volcano erupted near Iwoto Island, in the south of the country.
Policy comment: Despite the recent media coverage and the impending eruption of the Icelandic volcano, the level of volcanic activity worldwide is no more than usual. Still, the increased attention should provide impetus for efforts that reduce volcano risk. More work is needed to locate and assess high-risk volcanoes, and continuous monitoring of volcanic activity via satellite is a massive gap, according to Lara Mani, Senior Research Associate and volcano risk expert at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (speaking directly to Global Shield).
Volcanic risk is also a prime example of a specific threat benefiting from all-hazards policy solutions. Major volcanic eruptions will require emergency management services, evacuation and people movement plans, and infrastructure resilience – policies that are transferable to a range of GCR scenarios. The systemic risk caused by volcanoes also requires an all-hazard approach. Global supply chains could be abruptly and lengthily cut by even smaller-scale volcanoes in strategically vulnerable locations.
Volcanoes are one of the potential sunlight-blocking catastrophes that could cause disruptions in food supply. The largest eruption in recorded human history – the magnitude 7 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 – reduced global temperatures by 1 degree Celsius, leading to a global reduction in agricultural yields that caused famine and a rise in epidemics. The chance of a similar scale eruption occurring this century is roughly one-in-six.
Volcanoes also present a convergent risk. For example, recent research indicates that climate change could, through a variety of mechanisms, impact the likelihood of an eruption, the immediate aftermath of the eruption, and the longer-term effects of eruptive material on the atmosphere and the environment.
The first policy step requires improved all-hazards risk assessment. The UK’s 2023 National Risk Register, for example, included volcano risk but does not appropriately consider systemic and convergent risk. Preventing larger-magnitude eruptions also requires a strategic approach – with volcanic geoengineering a possible option, but presenting its own risk. Preparedness and response, as described above, relates to a range of scenarios. And risk communications, especially with the public, should consider how to engage before, during, and after a catastrophic event.
Increasing strategic cooperation on GCR
The presidents of the United States and China met in San Francisco on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, the first leader-level discussion in over a year. The practical announcements were positive for GCR-related issues. The two leaders agreed to discussions on AI risk and safety, potentially in a 1.5 track dialogue that includes AI experts. They agreed to reestablish military-to-military communications. And they will kick off a new round of climate change talks. Reporting ahead of the meeting that the two countries had agreed to ban the use of AI in autonomous and nuclear weapons systems did not appear to be accurate. The leader-level meeting came quickly after renewed senior-level discussions, including on arms control and nonproliferation.
Policy comment: The strategic competition between the US and China could increase GCR in a number of ways. It distracts, and potentially blinds, leaders in both countries from greater global threats. It incentivizes a build-up in military and technological capabilities that could exacerbate risk. And it reduces the opportunity and space for leader-level engagement that is critical to crisis management. A key challenge is that both countries are probably misperceiving the levels of risk – they have a political and economic incentive to overestimate the risk from the other major power, while underestimating the risk from global catastrophes.
The two countries need to chart a new path in their relationship. The US itself recognizes the need for collaboration with China on issues relating to GCR. In its 2022 National Security Strategy, the US recognized that “we will always be willing to work with the [People’s Republic of China] where our interests align…That includes on climate, pandemic threats, nonproliferation, countering illicit and illegal narcotics, the global food crisis, and macroeconomic issues.”
The recent dialogue between the two countries, including on issues relating to nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence, is welcome. Although they did not necessarily agree any substantive outcomes, these bilateral discussions represent the start of more constructive engagement on GCR issues. In fact, global catastrophic risk could be an issue they rally together around. They could collaborate bilaterally on reducing global threats and building resilience, increase and improve mechanisms that foster dialogue and reduce misperceptions between them, and jointly lead multilateral efforts around GCR.
Global Shield staffing update
We are sad to say that our cofounder, Ariel Conn, has decided to step down from her role for personal reasons to focus on other priorities that require her attention. Ariel was critical to Global Shield’s founding and early successes, which has put us on solid ground for future growth and expansion. You can find her statement about leaving on our website. And be sure to connect with her on Linkedin.
To partially fill the big shoes left by Ariel, Global Shield is recruiting for a Senior Officer role. We are looking for an energetic, independent, and collaborative team member to support the cofounders grow the organization. The senior officer will contribute to the strategic planning and execution of Global Shield’s policy, outreach and operations. We are taking applications until 3 December 2023. You can find out more about the role and how to apply here.