Global Shield Briefing (23 October 2024)
Civil defense, and the impacts of climate change on other threats
The latest policy, research and news on global catastrophic risk (GCR).
A Trojan princess, blessed with the gift of prophecy, has her true warnings unheeded, to the downfall of her city. A shepherd boy, restless with boredom, has his false warnings heeded, to the downfall of his herd. Cassandra and The Boy Who Cried Wolf – different fables which, together, provide the same lesson. Warning is not only about the message and the messenger. It is about the listener. If the listener is not ready, able or willing, the warning goes unheard. Perhaps they deem it unrealistic. Perhaps they are not in a position to listen. Perhaps they have lost trust in the messenger. Perhaps they are simply complacent. Whichever the case, the messenger must listen as actively as they speak.
Bolstering civil defense
The government of Sweden has reissued its civil emergency advice booklet, “If Crisis or War Comes”. The 32-page document (not yet available in English) provides advice on home preparedness, warning and alert systems, digital security, and duties for contributing to civil defense. A hard copy will be distributed to 5 million households in late November 2024.
On 6 September, Lithuania hosted nine European countries – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Sweden and Ukraine – for the Regional Civil Protection Forum to discuss measures, experiences and lessons for civil protection and resilience. It was a follow-up to the 8th European Civil Protection Forum held in June.
On 26 September, Taiwan’s president chaired the first meeting of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee. The 23-person committee includes eight ministers, religious representatives, private sector leaders, technology and critical infrastructure experts, and civil defense advocates.
Policy comment: Several countries around the world take a robust ‘civil defense’ approach to whole-of-society preparedness and resilience. Civil defense looks to all actors – federal and state governments, local municipalities and councils, companies, civil society and individuals – to be aware and ready for their responsibilities to themselves, their community and the nation. Few countries are well-practiced at civil defense; they’re typically those that have previously faced serious threats to national survival. Some of these countries are now taking additional efforts to bolster civil defense for the more complex risk environment. They are upgrading their civil defense approaches and strategies, increasing funding, expanding shelter networks, upgrading warning systems and better coordinating across society. Governance of civil defense is critical. For example, Lithuania has placed 65 officers responsible for civil protection in municipalities and ministries, while Sweden has a Minister for Civil Defense and Taiwan has established its top-level committee. Countries in Europe are also improving their coordination with other partners. In particular, NATO members, like newly appointed Sweden, have a commitment under Article 3 to civil preparedness.
Recognizing the impacts of climate change on other threats
A group of international climate and environmental scientists have issued a dire warning. Many of the signs of planetary health – such as surface temperatures, ice and glacier mass, tree cover loss and ocean heat – are at record levels. The scientists state that “We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence.”
Preliminary findings show that, in 2023, the world’s land absorbed a significantly lower amount of carbon than normal. The primary reasons were the major drought in the Amazon, extreme fire emissions in Canada and the transition from La Niña towards a moderate El Niño. Land sinks – primarily forests, plants and soils – absorb about a quarter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Even if potentially temporary, such as rapid collapse in land sinks were not included in climate modelling.
Policy comment: Planetary boundaries and climate tipping points are flashing red. Those who are concerned about global catastrophic risk from other sources, such as nuclear weapons, pandemics and artificial intelligence, cannot avoid the potential uncertainty and risk from climate change over the next 5-10 years. Climate change is a risk factor for other threats, such as feeding geopolitical tensions between nuclear powers and creating disease vectors with pandemic potential. It also exacerbates vulnerabilities in economic and social systems that will make it difficult to deal with catastrophic threats. As a recent example, Hurricane Helene in the US impacted the North Carolina facility of drug manufacturer Baxter International, leading to nation-wide shortages of intravenous fluid products that are critical for treatment of many medical conditions. Climate change and associated severe weather disasters could even have unexpected impacts on technological development. For example, the same hurricane forced the closure of two plants in North Carolina that mine some of the highest quality quartz in the world, used for silicon chops and other electronics. Furthermore, if climate change-driven crises continue, they will consume time-poor policymakers and reduce focus on emerging threats like AI and engineered pandemics.
Also see:
Three global environmental conferences will take place over the next few months: COP16 for biological diversity in Colombia in October, COP29 for climate change in Azerbaijan in November, and COP16 for desertification in Saudi Arabia in December. While separate, the conferences aim to address the intersection of climate change, biodiversity loss, desertification, land degradation, and pollution. Meanwhile, the fifth and potentially final negotiation session of the Global Plastics Treaty will be held in South Korea in late November.
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